On ITB Future Day, Professor Clemens Fuest, President of the ifo Institute, will present a global economic outlook. We asked him to give a little foretaste of what we can expect to hear
The global economic outlook is currently characterised by a decline in dynamic and growing risks. These risks include the looming danger of a trade war, the risk of a hard Brexit and the fragile situation of several Eurozone economies, in particular Italy, which has fallen back into recession. In the face of these risks, policymakers should take measures to reduce uncertainty and foster confidence of investors and consumers.
In particular, they should prevent a hard Brexit and try to convince the Italian government to return to the path of scal consolidation and growth enhancing economic reforms.
How important will a potential slowdown in the Chinese economy be for Europe/ROW?
After decades of dynamic economic growth, it is almost inevitable that growth rates in China will be lower in the years to come. The recently reported slowdown still implies growth rates between five and six percent, which is enough to keep economic exchange between China and the rest of the world
expanding. A stronger decline in economic growth, however, could have negative consequences for other countries including European countries currently benefitting from high demand from China.
How should the tourism industry be preparing for this?
I think that the tourism industry should be aware that income growth at current rates may not continue so that some of the demand may move towards lower cost segments.
What effect do you predict Brexit will have on the European travel/ tourism economy?
This depends on whether or not there will be a Brexit without a deal. Overall, I would expect the effect to be very limited. A hard Brexit may interrupt travel, but that will only be a transitory effect. If there is a deal, I would expect no impact at all.
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2019 AND BEYOND
Category: ITB Future Day
Date: March 6, 2019
Location: City Cube, Auditorium A4/A5
Photo: Prof. Dr Dr h. c. Clemens Fuest, President, ifo Institute